Welcome to Fortress America.
A new approach to statecraft in the United States puts the technology sector on the front line of the biggest geopolitical shift in generations.
What’s happening? Minerva Technology Futures has published a new report on the future of technology statecraft; Fortress America and the Future of the Global Tech Stack.
In it, we aim to make sense of the Trump administration’s vision for America’s role in the world, and the huge implications it will have for the future of the technology sector.
What’s the thesis? Understanding end goals and the policy levers that the US government can pull to achieve them is critical to navigating this disruptive period in global affairs; so is understanding how other governments and companies are likely to respond.
Fortress America means policies emphasizing national sovereignty; economic self-interest over international cooperation; protectionism; military self-reliance; reduced international commitments and a skeptical approach to agreements, alliances, and organizations not regarded as directly benefitting the United States.
While the implementation involved in building Fortress America has at times been hurried, the vision, embraced by the president and his close advisors, is relatively straightforward.
What does this new era hold? The architects of Fortress America are done acting as the world’s police force; and want to build a geographic sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere, stretching from Greenland and Canada to the Panama Canal Zone. They are deploying the full might of the statecraft toolkit to that end.
Globalization — which together with automation — hollowed out American manufacturing, and is being replaced by a new paradigm focused on national sovereignty, economic self-interest and the use of trade measures and technology statecraft tools to revitalize domestic industries.
By what method? Tariffs, first and foremost. But successive US administrations have developed an expansive set of other policy tools that the Trump team will wield in building Fortress America.
These include export controls, import bans, restrictions on inbound and outbound investment, and restrictions on Chinese technology in US critical infrastructure.
Novel funding mechanisms like a new sovereign wealth fund or a more robust Office of Strategic Capital at the Defense Department — aimed at spurring major new investments in defense technologies — are also set to play a role.
What does it mean for technology? The modern technology sector was built on globalized supply chains, relatively free movement of components and materials, multi-jurisdictional services and capital markets that span the planet. Fortress America challenges these ideas.
The US is focused on dominance in advanced artificial intelligence and other technologies with security and military applications. President Trump wants these technologies — and the stack of components, infrastructure and know-how that support them — to be made in America.
That’s not how the technology sector works at present; so refashioning it for Fortress America’s purposes will be an expensive, complicated, and time-consuming process.
What does it mean for other nations? Military allies and trading partners are rethinking some fundamental assumptions, including the reliability of US security guarantees and their reliance on US-made components and goods. They are teeing up big new investments in national defense in an effort to de-risk.
What does it mean for China? America’s chief rival is retaliating against the measures central to building Fortress America. It has matched US trade escalation with its own steep tariffs, while also pulling non-trade levers, like restricting exports of critical minerals, while signaling that it is prepared for a long fight.
The upshot? These massive shifts in economic relations and policies will force companies to make tough strategic decisions; to stick to globalized market provisions and hope for breakdowns to reverse; to invest in domestic production; or to accept the increased cost of resilience and de-risking through diversification.
For more on these dynamics, and all the analysis we’ve put together on the geopolitical horizon, and contingency planning for companies, do read the report here.